October 29, 2016

NFL Football Betting: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

NFL Football Betting:  New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills&h=253&w=372&zc=1

The Buffalo Bills have gotten off the mat after a poor start to the season but it does put them in a very challenging situation. Earlier in the year the NFL media had Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan all but fired only to see the Bills go on a four game winning streak. The second game in that streak was the New England Patriots’ final game without suspended Tom Brady. Backup Jimmy Garoppolo was injured forcing the Patriots to start third string rookie Jacoby Brissett. Buffalo gave the Patriots’ offense fits en route to a 16-0 victory. The Bills’ winning streak continued a couple more weeks but now they’ll welcome the Patriots to town off a 28-25 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

New England bounced back the following week as Tom Brady returned to action. They’ve won their three games since by a combined score of 95-46. They’re 6-1 SU/ATS with the only blemish on that record being the aforementioned loss to the Bills at Gillette Stadium. It might be easy to overplay the ‘Belichick in a revenge spot’ concept but he has been very good in that situation throughout his tenure in New England. This is a ‘perfect storm’ of revenge. Buffalo’s win was the first time that the Patriots had been shut out at Gillette Stadium going back 15 years. It also started the usual media bloviation about how Rex Ryan ‘has Belichick’s number’. To be fair, Ryan’s team are 5-1-1 in their last seven games against the Patriots. Of course the Patriots have dominated head to head play against the Bills particularly at Buffalo where they’re on a 17-7 SU/15-7-2 ATS run.

The biggest problem that the Bills have became evident last week. They’re not the same team without running back LeSean McCoy who is listed as ‘doubtful’ for Week 8 with a hamstring injury. Buffalo has plenty of other injuries. They were already without top WR Sammy Watkins and their nominal #2 running back, Robert Woods missed last week and is listed as ‘questionable’ this week. That forces Tyrod Taylor into a position where he is expected to ‘create’ to generate offense and he’s definitely not at that point. Tom Brady is and you’ll see a lot of him and a lot of running back LeGarrette Blount.

BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6.5 OVER BUFFALO BILLS