November 4, 2016

NFL Football Betting: Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers

NFL Football Betting:  Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers&h=253&w=372&zc=1

NFC vs. AFC at Lambeau Field on Sunday as the Green Bay Packers host the Indianapolis Colts. The Packers lost a wild game to Atlanta last time out falling 33-32 at the Georgia Dome but covering the spread as +3 underdogs. It was their second SU loss in three games–they lost 30-16 at home to Dallas on October 16. The Indianapolis Colts aren’t having a great season at 3-5 SU/3-4-1 ATS. The Colts have plenty of problems including a one dimensional offense, bad pass protection for Andrew Luck and a defense that is mediocre at best. The Colts have also lost 2 of 3 dropping a 30-14 verdict to Kansas City in their last game.

One interesting phenomenon that you see in sports handicapping in general and the NFL in particular is what I like to call ‘selective amnesia’. The ‘public’ is tough to figure–sometimes they’re right on top of a team’s decline in ability and/or poor form. That’s exactly the case with Indianapolis and the Colts have been all but dismissed (to some degree unfairly) by the betting public. They might not be a Super Bowl contender and have no shortage of issues but the ‘squares’ treat them like they’re the Cleveland Browns.

At the other extreme is the Green Bay Packers. The public continues to mythologize Lambeau Field and the Packers are 13-7 ATS at home but they’re clearly not unbeatable and particularly when the pointspread is involved. A bigger issue is the Packers’ injury situation which has hit a bunch of skill positions including running back, cornerback, wide receiver and center. As far as the public is concerned, however, as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy all is well.

You can make a pretty compelling case that this team has their best days behind them. The defense has never been a Packers’ strength but they’re very mediocre now that these injuries have taken their toll. Their passing defense is middle of the pack ranked #16 allowing 247 yards per game. Their total defense looks better but that’s misleading–no one really *tries* to run on Green Bay since they’re easy enough to beat through the air. The Cowboys were the only team that really attacked Green Bay with a balanced offense and they put up 191 yards.

Indianapolis might not be what they used to be but neither is Green Bay. The price on this game–laying a touchdown plus–suggests otherwise. Andrew Luck is still an elite quarterback and should be able to move the ball well against the Packers.