December 3, 2016

NFL Football Betting: Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

NFL Football Betting:  Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints&h=253&w=372&zc=1

The Detroit Lions are something of a ‘freak show’. They’ve fallen behind in the fourth quarter 11 times in 11 games this season. They’ve managed to pull out the victory 7 of those teams leaving them at 7-4 and in charge of the NFC North. With the Minnesota Vikings already ‘in the clubhouse’ with a loss the Lions could open up a two game lead atop the division with a victory here. The New Orleans Saints aren’t going anywhere as they limp into the stretch run of the NFL season one game under .500. Drew Brees is still an elite level quarterback but that’s about all New Orleans has going for them at this juncture.

To be sure, Detroit has been a lot better at home than on the road. That’s to be expected for a NFL team but they’re playing in a domed stadium here which might not be home but isn’t a muddy field in the middle of a blizzard either. Both teams have shown a penchant for close games this year. Five of the Saints six losses are by a total of 15 points. Every game the Lions have played this year has been decided by 7 points or fewer. The takeaway from this is that Detroit is better at winning close games than New Orleans and that could be the difference maker here. That also makes us very leery of the Saints as chalk. They’ve dropped 11 of their last 15 games when laying points and have a brutal 8-17 ATS record as a favorite over the past three seasons including 0-3 SU/ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

This has been Detroit’s best time of the season in recent years, at least from a pointspread perspective. They’re 7-3 SU/ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 over the past three seasons and 10-1 SU/8-3 ATS against opponents with losing records in the second half. The Lions enter this game on a 6-1 SU/5-1-1 ATS run and had no trouble with New Orleans when the teams played on 12/21/15 winning 35-27 as +2 road underdogs. That makes the price on this game all the more curious–Detroit has shown improvement since then while New Orleans looks to be about the same. Lions win this one outright.