December 24, 2016

NFL Football Betting: Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Football Betting:  Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers&h=253&w=372&zc=1

Strange days in the AFC West where the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos are in third place in the AFC West behind Kansas City and Oakland. They’ll need to have several things break their way just to make the playoffs this season but their first order of business is to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are 10-4-0 on the season but enter this contest off a 19-17 loss to Tennessee. The Chiefs won the previous meeting this season prevailing 30-27 in overtime at Denver on 11/27/16. That score is somewhat misleading as the Broncos dominated the yardage tally (nearly 200 yards more than the Chiefs) but blew an 8 point lead with 12 seconds remaining and went on to lose in overtime.

At one point, Arrowhead Stadium was considered one of the most fearsome venues in football. No more, as the Chiefs have failed to cover 8 of their last 10 here at home. It’s not hard to see why–they’re a decent team but one that doesn’t drop big margins on opponents. Throw in the ‘perception versus reality’ of their home field dominance and that’s a ticket for inflated lines and non-covers. They’re 5-2 SU at home this year but only 2-4-1 ATS. They catch a Denver team that has been very good as an underdog going 8-5 SU over the last three years along with 8-4-1 against the number.

Kansas City’s other problem is that their defense isn’t as stout as in years past. Throw in their sputtering offense behind Alex Smith and you’ve got a team that might look better in the standings than on the stat sheet. They have been outgained by more than 600 yards in their last seven games. They’ve gone Under the total in 10 of their 14 games this season including 6 of 7 at home. Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian has been playing well of late and has better wide receivers to work with than Smith does. Plus he’s got the nasty Denver defense which is the biggest difference. The Broncos are particularly fierce against the pass–they lead the league in that department holding opponents to just 183 yards per game through the air. They’re the better team despite their subordinate position in the standings.