College Football Betting:  Troy at Georgia Southern&h=253&w=372&zc=1

Tough times at Georgia Southern where the perennial powerhouse Eagles are having one of their worst seasons in memory. They opened their season 3-0 against overmatched opposition but have gone 1-7 SU since. The performance doesn’t say much for the future of first year head coach Tyson Summers who underachieved with a talented team that won 9 games each of the past two seasons. One of the best uses of pointspread performance data is to get an understanding of whether a team is underachieving or overachieving relative to marketplace expectations–the Eagles are 2-9 ATS this year overall and 1-6 ATS in conference.

It’s no secret that the Troy Trojans are a very good team. They’ve only lost twice this year, once being a very impressive effort against Clemson at ‘Death Valley’ where they lost by 6 as +34.5 point underdogs. They lost a game they should have won on 11/17, upset 35-3 at home against Arkansas State as -10 favorites. That big of a defeat this late in the season could be worrisome but they came back after a bye week to obliterate Texas State 40-7 and covered the -28.5 spread. There’s also a revenge component that underscores just how little Eagles’ coach Summers has done with a talent laden roster–the Trojans were thumped 45-10 by the Eagles at home last year and came nowhere near covering as +4.5 dogs. In fact, Georgia Southern won the last two games in the series by a combined margin of 87-20.

The local media in Statesboro, Georgia isn’t particularly harsh but there’s few defenders of Summers’ at this point of the season. He really shot himself in the foot against Georgia State by not shaking hands after the game–a classless move against any team but inexcusable against a 2-8 opponent. The most charitable vibe is that the Troy game is his ‘last shot’ but there’s little to suggest that he has the support of his team. If he had, he wouldn’t have been down to his ‘last shot’. Georgia Southern might not be Alabama, but it’s a proud program with plenty of tradition. Summers’ poor performance was bad enough but his classless display last week is likely the ‘last straw’ for his team. This was already a bad matchup for the Eagles and the ‘intangibles’ surrounding their coach make it even worse.

BET TROY -7 OVER GEORGIA SOUTHERN