College Football Betting:  Syracuse at Clemson&h=253&w=372&zc=1

No, we’re not going to call for Syracuse to head into ‘Death Valley’ and beat the undefeated Clemson Tigers. We don’t need to given the price on this game. Clemson survived a touch and go battle with Florida State last week to remain undefeated and keep their National Championship hopes alive. Syracuse has started to show some improved form under first year head coach Dino Babers. After suffering through a four losses in five games stretch they’ve won two straight, both against credible opponents (Virginia Tech, at Boston College). They’re now tied for third in the ACC Atlantic with Wake Forest, both teams at 2-2 in conference.

The basic premise of this play is ‘handicapping 101′. We’re going against Clemson coming off a huge, hard fought win over Florida State and now facing an opponent that won’t provide the same level of intrinsic motivation. There’s every reason to think that the Tigers will be physically, mentally and emotionally exhausted following their 37-34 win over Florida State and they’ll be happy to get any kind of win and move on. The Tigers defense hasn’t been particularly impressive against good offenses this season and they’re now facing a very tough tactical matchup against an ‘uptempo’ Syracuse team that will be extremely well rested, having last played on October 22 giving the Orange a break of two full weeks.

Clemson has been a poor ATS play in several situations relevant to this game. They’re 7-13 ATS off of a conference game and 6-12 ATS off an ACC win. You can increase the ‘letdown’ phenomenon off of a conference opponent by a couple orders of magnitude here coming off that slugfest in Tallahassee last week. The Tigers have failed to cover their last two games which is typical for a team that is undefeated SU–their prices keep going up and they can’t match the pace of these increases. Obviously, there’s not much we can take from Syracuse’s past performance ATS data with a new coach playing a drastically new system but it is worth noting that they’ve covered the last two meetings against Clemson. They lost by 10 as +30 dogs at home on 11/14/15 and lost by 10 as +17 dogs on 10/25/14 in their last trip to Death Valley. And think back on all of those great pointspread covering performances that Clemson has turned in during the month of November over the past few years. Can’t remember any? That’s because they’re on a 1-7 ATS run during the last three Novembers!