College Football Betting:  Louisiana-Monroe at New Mexico&h=253&w=372&zc=1

Not exactly the marquee game on the college football board but it is one that could offer nice wagering value. New Mexico is 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS on the year and they’ve been an offensive monster. They still struggle when they step up in class like they did at Rutgers and against Boise State but Bob Davie’s variant of the ‘Pistol’ offense is really tough for teams to defend on the first look. Boise State’s superior athletes held them to 21 points and Rutgers limited them to 28. Every other team has had 31+ dropped on them with point totals of 48,48,31,45 in their other three games. Their rushing numbers are also pretty impressive–446 yards against SJSU, 382 against Boise State and 373 against Air Force in Dallas last week.

Louisiana-Monroe is a tough team for anyone to get excited about playing. They’ve been a doormat in recent years (8-23 SU L33) and are a woeful 1-21 SU/9-12 ATS as an underdog. They’ve also got one road win in the last three years (1-17 SU/9-8 ATS). They’re 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS this year but overall they’re showing some signs of life. They’ve also put up good offensive numbers against a reasonable class of opposition. They’ve been somewhat unfairly dismissed by the public based on their three games against vastly superior competition. They were routed as expected against Oklahoma and Auburn (though they did stay inside the +46 number against OU) but played tough against an overvalued Georgia Southern team losing by only 2 as +27 dogs in Statesboro. They turn the ball over a lot (13 in 6 games this year) but can put up numbers when not facing a powerhouse–they’ve scored 31 and 40 the last two weeks against Idaho and Texas State.

A bigger issue is New Mexico’s defense, or lack thereof. They’re #115 in scoring defense allowing 36.7 PPG and against a fairly easy schedule. It’s one thing to allow 456 yards to Boise State, another entirely to allow 443 yards and 41 points to 2-5 San Jose State. They allowed 40 points and 531 to Air Force last week. To be fair, Louisiana-Monroe has a bad statistical defense as well but that’s going to happen when you give up 59 to Oklahoma and 58 to Auburn. Against their other four opponents they allowed a much more reasonable 28 PPG. Lobos on a 4-7 ATS run as a favorite, a 7-10 ATS run at home and a 4-7 ATS run against opponents with a losing record. ULM is nothing special but they’ll gladly play at New Mexico’s preferred up tempo pace and when the smoke clears they’ll likely be well inside this huge number. We’ll also bet the ‘Over’ which even at 62 looks reasonable given the teams involved. Lobos ‘Over’ in all 6 this year and 9 of their L11 as a favorite. ULM over in 4 of 6 this year.