October 8, 2016

College Football Betting: Charlotte at Florida Atlantic

College Football Betting:  Charlotte at Florida Atlantic&h=253&w=372&zc=1

One of the two college football games rescheduled to Sunday in the wake of Hurricane Matthew is definitely the less competitive of the two. Georgia and South Carolina will play later this afternoon but the early game will pit Florida Atlantic (3-9 LY) against Charlotte (2-10 LY). Things haven’t improved this year with both teams coming in at 1-4 SU. Presumably, one of these two teams will have to win. I’d like to quote boxing announcer Michael Buffer’s catch phrase ‘Somebody’s ‘O’ will have to go’ but they even screwed that up by winning a game this year.

Florida Atlantic has yet to cover a game this year. They opened their season with a win over FCS Southern Illinois and haven’t won or covered since. The low point was a 63-7 road loss at Kansas State but to be fair they have been more competitive in their last two games against more reasonable opponents Ball State and Florida International. FAU’s dismal ATS performance is nothing new–they’re on a 4-17 ATS run in their last 21 games. Ouch. The most frightening situational stat is their record as a favorite going 3-8 SU/0-10-1 ATS in the last three years. The fact that they’re nearly a two touchdown favorite here is a frightening prospect not only due to that record but as a reflection of how bad Charlotte is.

Charlotte is in their second year as a FBS competitor and that invariably comes with paying some serious dues. Their ATS performance suggests that the marketplace has yet to valuate the 49ers properly (or for that matter valuate Florida Atlantic properly). Charlotte is 3-10 ATS since moving up to FBS competition including 2-10 ATS as an underdog and 0-6 SU/0-5-1 ATS in this price range (+10.5 to +21). Charlotte is 2-5 ATS on the road but FAU is 4-9 ATS at home over the past three years. Charlotte is 0-7 SU/1-3-3 ATS against opponents with losing records. FAU is 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS against opponents with losing records.

One dynamic you’ll see often at all levels of college football (and particularly in FBS vs. FCS games) is a bad team taking out frustrations against ‘even worse’ teams. Even Charlotte has done that, beating up on FCS opponent Elon 47-14 as -23 point favorites. Now it looks like Florida Atlantic’s turn to do the same thing.