College Football Betting:  BYU at Boise State&h=253&w=372&zc=1

Very entertaining matchup between Intermountain West heavyweights as BYU heads ‘north of the border’–the Utah border, that is–to take on Boise State on their infamous blue ‘Smurf Turf’. BYU is in the first year of head coach Kalani Sitake who has some big shoes to fill with Bronco Mendenhall heading to the University of Virginia. The Cougars expected to take some lumps this year–playing as an independent they faced one of the most brutal schedules in the country in the early going but they’ve toughed it out. ‘Tough’ is the operative phrase here as BYU has played every game with great intensity and that’s why they’ve got a 5-2 ATS record to go along with their 4-3 SU mark. Boise State is 6-0 SU but just 2-4 ATS. If the Broncos are going to ‘run the table’ and complete an undefeated season this looks to be the toughest challenge that remains.

The national sports media and betting ‘public’ has the completely wrong take on this game. They’re fixating on the ‘revenge angle’ off an early season 35-24 win by BYU in Provo last year. That’s not really the case–these are two regional powerhouses that know that they’re going to be in tough every year. Another thing that has been lost to many outside of the Mountain Time Zone–this BYU team is tough and physical. The ‘casual fans’ tapped out after BYU opened the season 1-3 SU but they’ve won three straight. More importantly, they’ve been a monster as an underdog going 4-0 ATS despite a 1-3 SU record. The Cougars have been strong away from home over the past three years with a 9-4 ATS record.

Boise State is a very good team but after so many years of success the Broncos have become highly overvalued on their home field. They’re on a 14-2 SU run at home but they’re just 6-10 against the spread. They’re 3-0 SU this year but 0-3 ATS. The price on this game is just too high–a reflection of the higher public profile of Boise State and the perception that BYU is ‘down’ in their first year under their new head coach. Getting a full touchdown we’ll gladly take the Cougars who have showed up to play every game this year.