October 10, 2016

College Football Betting: Appalachian State at UL-Lafayette

College Football Betting:  Appalachian State at UL-Lafayette&h=253&w=372&zc=1

Wednesday night college football action this week as Sun Belt Conference entrants Appalachian State and UL-Lafayette face off in ‘Cajun Country’. UL Lafayette is coming off of back to back losing seasons and is 2-3 SU this year though they’ve been a competitive pointspread play throughout. The Appalachian State Mountaineers are in their third year at the FBS level after a run as one of the powerhouse programs at the FCS level. At any level, Mountaineers football is no joke. We’re talking about a three time FCS National Champion and a program that has had only one losing season since 1993. They’re made an almost seamless transition to the top level of college football with a 20-9 SU record since making the jump. They’ve lost 4 games since the start of the 2015 season which includes losses to Clemson, Miami-FL and Tennessee.

Strange scheduling setup for this game. Both teams have been off since October 1 and will be each be off for ten games after this matchup. The Mountaineers are coming off a win over Georgia State while the Ragin’ Cajuns are off back to back overtime losses on the road. UL-Lafayette has a decent defense and particularly against the run. The time off was definitely needed on this side of the ball. The ULL rushing defense is a good tactical matchup against App State which gets most of their productivity on the ground. They’re an efficient passing team but they’re not a side that throws a lot downfield.

Despite the Ragin’ Cajuns mediocre SU record during the past three years they’ve been a feisty opponent when stepping up in class. They’re near break even in most pointspread categories but they’re 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS against opponents with winning records. The Mountaineers are a strong road team (9-5 SU/ATS L3) and have been especially successful as a road favorite (6-1 SU/5-2 ATS L3). That being said, they’re not a team that can drop a lot of points against a capable defense. Their previous win against Georgia State is a good case in point and they’re not a particularly strong defense (#95 yards per game, #70 PPG). Appalachian State was in control throughout and forced 4 turnovers but only won by a 17-3 final score. Mountaineers should win–they’re excellent at controlling the style and tempo of the game and not ‘beating themselves’. Just can’t trust them to cover a double digit price.