September 13, 2016

MLB Baseball Betting: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

MLB Baseball Betting:  San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants&h=253&w=372&zc=1

The San Francisco Giants are trying to run down the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West while maintaining their grip on the top wild card spot in the National League. It’s been a ‘tale of two seasons’ for the Giants. Before the All Star Break they were alone atop the NL West but a combination of a torrid run by the Los Angeles Dodgers combined with their own poor play changed that dynamic entirely. The Padres have little to play for at this point though they can still finish out of last place with a bit of effort down the stretch. The currently lead the last place Arizona Diamondbacks by 1/2 game.

Neither team ins in particularly good form at the moment. Pending the outcome of Tuesday action the Padres are 5-7 +1.6 units in the month of September while the Giants are 5-6 -2.5 units for the month. San Diego has been horrible on the road all season long and they’ll check in for this game with a 27-46 record but as always in sports betting it’s important to keep valuations in mind. The Padres’ valuations are such that a record 21 games under .500 translates to a loss of -4.7 units. Such is the advantage of ‘lower expectations’. The Giants are in the opposite situation–they’re 38-31 at home but since the public ‘expects’ them to do better that works out to a loss of -5.5 units.

The pitching matchup is interesting–San Francisco will start lefthander Madison Bumgarner who has been pretty good all year, very sharp at home and a mixed bag in his last three assignments. For the year, Bumgarner has a 2.66 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP with the Giants winning 18 of his 30 starts. At home, they’ve won 10 of his 15 starts with Bumgarner putting up a 2.00 ERA and a 0.887 WHIP. His L3 line is strange. He’s got a 4.26 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts with 19 innings of work, 16 hits and 9 ER allowed, 3 HR against and 24 strikeouts against 3 walks. The important thing is that the Giants won all three games scoring a total of 23 runs in his support.

The price is the headscratcher here. Bumgarner is a ‘big name’ but there’s nothing about his form nor the form of his team that justifies their being a -300 favorite. In fact, the Padres have made money against LHP (19-20 +5.6 units) and hit them better from a statistical standpoint than they do in every other situation (4.5 runs per game and .247 BA). We’ll take a shot against Bumgarner at the huge price.