September 1, 2016

MLB Baseball Betting: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Baseball Betting:  Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates&h=253&w=372&zc=1

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a tough spot and it might not matter how they play down the stretch. They’ve got only one shot to make the playoffs–via the wild card–thanks to the Chicago Cubs who have run away and hid atop the NL Central. Pittsburgh is just 2.5 games back of the second place St. Louis Cardinals but they’re 17.5 games back of the first place Cubs pending the outcome of Thursday action. To put that in perspective, the NL West’s last place team–the San Diego Padres–are 19 games out of first place. The big difference is that the Padres are 55-78 while the Pirates are 3 games over .500.

The Milwaukee Brewers have long been a ‘foil’ of the Pirates–particularly at Miller Park–but they’re just playing out the string at this point. The only real goal is to stay in front of the slumping Cincinnati Reds (2-8 L10) and avoid finishing in last place in the NL Central. They’re 28.5 games out of first and 11 games behind the third place Pirates. They’ve lost 6 of 10 though to be fair the Pirates aren’t exactly tearing it up having split their last ten games.

Pittsburgh will start right hander Jameson Taillon who is a highly touted prospect and one that has turned in some decent work this season. Overall, he’s got a 3.51 ERA with a 3.07 home ERA. Pittsburgh has won 9 of his 11 starts YTD including 5 of 7 at PNC Park. They’ve also won 2 of his last 3 despite less than impressive numbers. Taillon has a L3 ERA of 5.29 with a 1.235 WHIP allowing 10 ER in 17 innings of work including 3 home runs. On the plus side, he’s got 16 strikeouts to just 4 walks during that stretch. He’s coming off a horrible start at Milwaukee just a few days ago (8/27) where he allowed 7 hits, 5 earned runs including two home runs in just 3 innings of work.

He’ll be opposed by right hander Junior Guerra who is one of the real ‘under the radar’ pitchers in baseball. Milwaukee has won 11 of his 17 starts including 6 of 8 on the road. They’ve drop two of his last three though Gurerra has for the most part pitched well. For the season, Guerrera has a 2.93 ERA with a 3.86 road ERA. He’s also got a 2.37 L3 ERA though he’s coming off a bad start at San Diego on 8/3. He went 4 innings allowing 4 earned runs but immediately went on the DL with an elbow injury.